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The first half of 2022 was the worst very first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. But given that the start of the second half of the year, the market has started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near the hypothetical limit for a brand-new bull market.
When we see this rally, our main question is: are we taking a look at a new bull market or is this a bear market rally? To put it simply, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the marketplace seeing a little rally before another plunge?
To answer this question, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated financier sentiment: The implication is that the marketplace has actually reached its bottom as the cost has actually been driven down by financiers selling stocks without the hope of regaining their losses. Therefore, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 profits exceeded expectations: Numerous investors were fretted that as stocks plunged, this downturn would also be reflected in their profits report. The reports were not almost as bad as numerous feared.
Investors are expecting an inflation decrease and an end to the Fed hiking rates of interest by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the US Federal Reserve is worried that this is taking place prematurely, prior to the required financial goals have actually been attained.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies occur typically, and this has actually indeed been a big one. Compared to the 3 previous major crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, two things stand out:.
The large number of bear rallies which generally take place before the one that is sustainable shows up and begins the next booming market. We are presently in the 4th rally, and some recoveries require 11.
The plus size of this 13% rally versus the 8% typical bear market rally. History indicates that we may have more incorrect dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, though huge, is not unprecedented.
Inflation should come down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will result in the next bull market, we require to see a continual decline in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with product rates falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market beginning to compromise. Despite these signals, we will need to see concrete data that inflation is coming down, which still might not convince the Fed that it is time to halt rate of interest hikes.
The primary ETF to mention here is ARKK. It sprung into the limelight in 2020, with its disruptive investments managed by Cathie Wood. In 2020, ARKK gained around 148% after buying stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now manages approximately 10 different ETFs, offering exposure to numerous sectors of the marketplace, with the main concentrate on tech.
” ARKK (ARK Development ETF) is heavily weighted towards health care and infotech properties. The ETF provides direct exposure to a variety of sectors, enabling you to increase the variety of your portfolio.
” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has actually felt the full effect of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We remain positive that we may have seen the bearishness reach its bottom but at the same time cautious about the current rally being the sustainable recovery that will lead to the next booming market. For that to occur, inflation still requires to come down.