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The first half of 2022 was the worst first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. Since the start of the 2nd half of the year, the market has actually started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near the theoretical limit for a new bull market.
When we see this rally, our main concern is: are we looking at a new bull market or is this a bearish market rally? To put it simply, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our method up, or is the marketplace seeing a little rally before another plunge?
To address this concern, let’s comprehend what is driving this rally.
Capitulated financier sentiment: The ramification is that the market has actually reached its bottom as the cost has been driven down by investors selling stocks without the hope of regaining their losses. Hence, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 earnings went beyond expectations: Numerous investors were stressed that as stocks plunged, this downturn would likewise be shown in their earnings report. The reports were not nearly as bad as numerous feared.
Investors are hoping for an inflation decline and an end to the Fed hiking interest rates by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the US Federal Reserve is concerned that this is happening too soon, prior to the essential economic objectives have been attained.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies happen typically, and this has actually undoubtedly been a big one. Compared to the three previous major crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, 2 things stand out:.
The large number of bear rallies which normally occur before the one that is sustainable arrives and begins the next booming market. We are currently in the 4th rally, and some recoveries have needed 11.
The large size of this 13% rally versus the 8% typical bear market rally. History indicates that we may have more incorrect dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, however big, is not unprecedented.
Inflation should come down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will cause the next bull market, we require to see a sustained decrease in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with commodity costs falling, supply chains loosening up, and the labour market starting to weaken. In spite of these signals, we will need to see concrete information that inflation is boiling down, which still may not persuade the Fed that it is time to halt rate of interest hikes.
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” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has actually felt the full effect of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We remain optimistic that we may have seen the bear market reach its bottom but at the same time cautious about the current rally being the sustainable healing that will lead to the next booming market. For that to take place, inflation still requires to come down.