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The very first half of 2022 was the worst first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. Given that the beginning of the 2nd half of the year, the market has actually started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and close to the theoretical limit for a brand-new booming market.
When we see this rally, our primary concern is: are we looking at a new booming market or is this a bear market rally? In other words, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the market seeing a little rally before another plunge?
To answer this question, let’s comprehend what is driving this rally.
Capitulated financier belief: The ramification is that the marketplace has reached its bottom as the cost has been driven down by investors selling stocks without the hope of regaining their losses. Therefore, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 earnings went beyond expectations: Many financiers were worried that as stocks plummeted, this slump would also be reflected in their earnings report. Nevertheless, the reports were not almost as bad as numerous feared.
Financiers are expecting an inflation decrease and an end to the Fed hiking rate of interest by the end of the year.
As the marketplace rallies, the US Federal Reserve is worried that this is happening too soon, before the needed financial objectives have been attained.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies take place often, and this has actually undoubtedly been a big one. Compared to the three previous major crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, 2 things stand out:.
The large number of bear rallies which typically happen before the one that is sustainable shows up and starts the next booming market. We are currently in the fourth rally, and some healings have needed 11.
The large size of this 13% rally versus the 8% typical bear market rally. History shows that we may have more incorrect dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, however huge, is not extraordinary.
Inflation must come down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will lead to the next bull market, we need to see a continual decline in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with commodity rates falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market starting to damage. Despite these signals, we will require to see concrete information that inflation is boiling down, which still might not encourage the Fed that it is time to stop interest rate hikes.
In 2020, ARKK got around 148% after purchasing stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now controls approximately ten various ETFs, offering direct exposure to different sectors of the market, with the main focus on tech.
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” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has felt the full effect of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We stay positive that we may have seen the bear market reach its bottom but at the same time careful about the current rally being the sustainable healing that will lead to the next bull market. For that to occur, inflation still requires to come down.