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The first half of 2022 was the worst very first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. However considering that the start of the second half of the year, the market has begun to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near to the theoretical limit for a brand-new booming market.
When we see this rally, our primary question is: are we looking at a brand-new bull market or is this a bear market rally? In other words, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our method up, or is the marketplace seeing a small rally prior to another plunge?
To answer this concern, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated investor belief: The implication is that the marketplace has actually reached its bottom as the rate has been driven down by investors selling stocks without the hope of regaining their losses. Therefore, the marketplace is ripe for a rally.
Q2 revenues exceeded expectations: Many investors were worried that as stocks dropped, this decline would likewise be shown in their earnings report. However, the reports were not almost as bad as many feared.
Investors are wishing for an inflation decrease and an end to the Fed treking rates of interest by the end of the year.
As the marketplace rallies, the US Federal Reserve is worried that this is occurring too soon, prior to the required economic goals have been attained.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies occur frequently, and this has indeed been a big one. Compared to the 3 previous major crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, two things stick out:.
The large number of bear rallies which usually take place before the one that is sustainable shows up and starts the next bull market. We are presently in the 4th rally, and some recoveries require 11.
The plus size of this 13% rally versus the 8% typical bearishness rally. History suggests that we might have more incorrect dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, though huge, is not unprecedented.
Inflation should boil down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will result in the next booming market, we need to see a sustained decrease in inflation. Our company believe we are close to this inflation peak, with commodity costs falling, supply chains loosening up, and the labour market beginning to damage. Regardless of these signals, we will need to see concrete data that inflation is coming down, which still might not encourage the Fed that it is time to stop interest rate hikes.
The primary ETF to point out here is ARKK. It sprung into the spotlight in 2020, with its disruptive investments handled by Cathie Wood. In 2020, ARKK got around 148% after buying stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now manages approximately 10 different ETFs, providing exposure to various sectors of the marketplace, with the primary focus on tech.
” ARKK (ARK Development ETF) is greatly weighted towards healthcare and infotech assets. The ETF uses direct exposure to a variety of sectors, enabling you to increase the variety of your portfolio.
” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has felt the complete impact of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We stay positive that we might have seen the bear market reach its bottom but at the same time cautious about the present rally being the sustainable healing that will result in the next bull market. For that to take place, inflation still needs to come down.