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The very first half of 2022 was the worst very first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. Since the start of the second half of the year, the market has started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near to the theoretical threshold for a brand-new booming market.
When we see this rally, our main question is: are we taking a look at a new booming market or is this a bear market rally? In other words, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the marketplace seeing a little rally prior to another plunge?
To address this question, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated investor sentiment: The implication is that the market has reached its bottom as the cost has been driven down by financiers selling stocks without the hope of restoring their losses. Therefore, the marketplace is ripe for a rally.
Q2 earnings exceeded expectations: Numerous financiers were fretted that as stocks dropped, this downturn would also be reflected in their profits report. However, the reports were not almost as bad as lots of feared.
Financiers are wishing for an inflation decline and an end to the Fed treking rate of interest by the end of the year.
As the marketplace rallies, the United States Federal Reserve is concerned that this is happening prematurely, before the necessary economic objectives have been accomplished.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies happen often, and this has certainly been a huge one. Compared to the 3 previous significant crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, 2 things stand apart:.
The large number of bear rallies which usually occur prior to the one that is sustainable gets here and begins the next booming market. We are presently in the fourth rally, and some healings require 11.
The large size of this 13% rally versus the 8% average bearishness rally. History indicates that we may have more false dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, though big, is not extraordinary.
Inflation needs to come down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will cause the next bull market, we need to see a sustained decline in inflation. Our company believe we are close to this inflation peak, with product prices falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market starting to deteriorate. Despite these signals, we will need to see concrete data that inflation is boiling down, which still may not persuade the Fed that it is time to stop rate of interest hikes.
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” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has actually felt the complete effect of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We remain positive that we might have seen the bearishness reach its bottom but at the same time careful about the existing rally being the sustainable healing that will cause the next booming market. For that to take place, inflation still needs to come down.