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The first half of 2022 was the worst very first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. Because the start of the 2nd half of the year, the market has started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near the theoretical threshold for a brand-new bull market.
When we see this rally, our primary concern is: are we looking at a brand-new bull market or is this a bearish market rally? In other words, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the marketplace seeing a small rally before another plunge?
To answer this concern, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated investor belief: The implication is that the marketplace has reached its bottom as the price has been driven down by investors selling stocks without the hope of restoring their losses. Hence, the marketplace is ripe for a rally.
Q2 incomes went beyond expectations: Many investors were worried that as stocks dropped, this recession would also be reflected in their incomes report. However, the reports were not almost as bad as many feared.
Financiers are expecting an inflation decrease and an end to the Fed hiking interest rates by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the US Federal Reserve is worried that this is occurring prematurely, before the necessary financial goals have been attained.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies take place typically, and this has undoubtedly been a huge one. Compared to the 3 previous significant crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, two things stand out:.
The large number of bear rallies which normally happen before the one that is sustainable shows up and begins the next bull market. We are currently in the 4th rally, and some healings require 11.
The large size of this 13% rally versus the 8% typical bear market rally. History indicates that we may have more incorrect dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, though big, is not unmatched.
Inflation should come down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will result in the next booming market, we require to see a sustained decline in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with commodity prices falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market beginning to deteriorate. Despite these signals, we will require to see concrete data that inflation is coming down, which still may not encourage the Fed that it is time to stop rate of interest walkings.
In 2020, ARKK acquired around 148% after purchasing stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now controls roughly ten various ETFs, offering exposure to different sectors of the market, with the primary focus on tech.
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” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has felt the full effect of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We stay optimistic that we may have seen the bearish market reach its bottom but at the same time careful about the current rally being the sustainable recovery that will result in the next bull market. For that to occur, inflation still needs to come down.