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The very first half of 2022 was the worst very first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. But since the beginning of the second half of the year, the market has started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and close to the theoretical limit for a new bull market.
When we see this rally, our main concern is: are we taking a look at a new bull market or is this a bearishness rally? In other words, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the market seeing a small rally prior to another plunge?
To address this concern, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated investor sentiment: The ramification is that the market has reached its bottom as the cost has been driven down by financiers offering stocks without the hope of regaining their losses. Therefore, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 earnings went beyond expectations: Numerous financiers were fretted that as stocks dropped, this slump would also be reflected in their incomes report. The reports were not almost as bad as numerous feared.
Investors are wishing for an inflation decrease and an end to the Fed treking interest rates by the end of the year.
As the marketplace rallies, the United States Federal Reserve is concerned that this is occurring prematurely, before the essential financial goals have been accomplished.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies take place often, and this has actually indeed been a big one. Compared to the 3 previous significant crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, two things stick out:.
The large number of bear rallies which normally occur before the one that is sustainable gets here and starts the next bull market. We are currently in the 4th rally, and some healings have needed 11.
The plus size of this 13% rally versus the 8% average bear market rally. History shows that we might have more false dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, however big, is not unprecedented.
Inflation must boil down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will lead to the next bull market, we need to see a sustained decline in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with commodity costs falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market beginning to damage. In spite of these signals, we will need to see concrete data that inflation is boiling down, which still might not persuade the Fed that it is time to stop rates of interest hikes.
In 2020, ARKK gained around 148% after buying stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now manages approximately ten different ETFs, supplying direct exposure to different sectors of the market, with the primary focus on tech.
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” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has felt the complete effect of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We remain optimistic that we might have seen the bear market reach its bottom but at the same time cautious about the current rally being the sustainable healing that will lead to the next bull market. For that to occur, inflation still needs to come down.