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The first half of 2022 was the worst very first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. Considering that the start of the second half of the year, the market has actually started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near to the theoretical threshold for a new booming market.
When we see this rally, our main question is: are we taking a look at a new booming market or is this a bearishness rally? To put it simply, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the market seeing a small rally before another plunge?
To address this question, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated financier sentiment: The ramification is that the market has reached its bottom as the cost has actually been driven down by investors offering stocks without the hope of restoring their losses. Thus, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 earnings went beyond expectations: Numerous investors were fretted that as stocks plummeted, this downturn would likewise be shown in their revenues report. However, the reports were not nearly as bad as numerous feared.
Financiers are wishing for an inflation decline and an end to the Fed hiking interest rates by the end of the year.
As the marketplace rallies, the US Federal Reserve is concerned that this is happening prematurely, before the necessary economic goals have actually been attained.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies take place often, and this has indeed been a big one. Compared to the three previous major crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, two things stand apart:.
The large number of bear rallies which normally take place prior to the one that is sustainable gets here and begins the next booming market. We are currently in the 4th rally, and some healings have needed 11.
The large size of this 13% rally versus the 8% typical bear market rally. History shows that we might have more incorrect dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, though big, is not extraordinary.
Inflation must come down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will cause the next bull market, we need to see a sustained decline in inflation. Our company believe we are close to this inflation peak, with product costs falling, supply chains loosening up, and the labour market starting to damage. Despite these signals, we will need to see concrete data that inflation is boiling down, which still may not persuade the Fed that it is time to stop rates of interest hikes.
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” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has actually felt the full impact of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We remain positive that we might have seen the bearishness reach its bottom but at the same time cautious about the current rally being the sustainable recovery that will lead to the next bull market. For that to occur, inflation still needs to come down.