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The very first half of 2022 was the worst first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. However since the beginning of the 2nd half of the year, the marketplace has actually begun to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near the theoretical threshold for a new booming market.
When we see this rally, our primary concern is: are we looking at a new bull market or is this a bearishness rally? Simply put, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the marketplace seeing a little rally before another plunge?
To address this question, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated investor sentiment: The implication is that the marketplace has reached its bottom as the price has been driven down by financiers selling stocks without the hope of regaining their losses. Therefore, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 profits exceeded expectations: Many investors were fretted that as stocks plummeted, this slump would also be reflected in their profits report. Nevertheless, the reports were not almost as bad as many feared.
Financiers are expecting an inflation decline and an end to the Fed hiking rates of interest by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the United States Federal Reserve is concerned that this is happening too soon, prior to the needed economic objectives have actually been accomplished.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies occur frequently, and this has undoubtedly been a big one. Compared to the 3 previous significant crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, two things stand out:.
The large number of bear rallies which generally happen before the one that is sustainable shows up and begins the next bull market. We are currently in the fourth rally, and some recoveries have needed 11.
The plus size of this 13% rally versus the 8% typical bearishness rally. History shows that we might have more false dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, though huge, is not extraordinary.
Inflation must come down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will lead to the next booming market, we need to see a sustained decrease in inflation. Our company believe we are close to this inflation peak, with product costs falling, supply chains loosening up, and the labour market starting to weaken. In spite of these signals, we will need to see concrete information that inflation is boiling down, which still might not convince the Fed that it is time to halt rate of interest walkings.
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” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has felt the complete effect of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We stay optimistic that we may have seen the bear market reach its bottom but at the same time careful about the current rally being the sustainable healing that will cause the next booming market. For that to happen, inflation still requires to come down.