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The very first half of 2022 was the worst very first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. But since the beginning of the second half of the year, the market has actually begun to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near to the theoretical limit for a brand-new bull market.
When we see this rally, our main concern is: are we taking a look at a new booming market or is this a bearish market rally? To put it simply, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the market seeing a little rally prior to another plunge?
To address this concern, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated investor sentiment: The ramification is that the market has reached its bottom as the rate has actually been driven down by financiers offering stocks without the hope of regaining their losses. Hence, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 profits exceeded expectations: Numerous investors were worried that as stocks plunged, this slump would likewise be reflected in their revenues report. The reports were not nearly as bad as lots of feared.
Financiers are hoping for an inflation decrease and an end to the Fed hiking rates of interest by the end of the year.
As the marketplace rallies, the United States Federal Reserve is concerned that this is happening prematurely, prior to the required financial goals have actually been attained.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies occur often, and this has indeed been a big one. Compared to the 3 previous significant crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, two things stand apart:.
The large number of bear rallies which usually happen before the one that is sustainable shows up and begins the next booming market. We are currently in the 4th rally, and some healings require 11.
The large size of this 13% rally versus the 8% typical bearishness rally. History indicates that we might have more false dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, however big, is not unprecedented.
Inflation must boil down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will lead to the next booming market, we need to see a sustained decrease in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with product rates falling, supply chains loosening up, and the labour market starting to weaken. In spite of these signals, we will need to see concrete data that inflation is boiling down, which still may not encourage the Fed that it is time to halt interest rate hikes.
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” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has felt the complete effect of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We remain optimistic that we might have seen the bearishness reach its bottom but at the same time cautious about the present rally being the sustainable recovery that will cause the next booming market. For that to take place, inflation still needs to come down.